Weekly Seasonality Outlook: 17 July 2023

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1. Seasonality Outlook

2. Seasonal Patterns of the Week

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Seasonal Market Outlook

The market overview shows you current trends, developments, and prospects of seasonal patterns in various asset classes.

Summary

Major Indices

Let's take a look at the major indices.

Seasonal Outlook: Indices

The major indices' seasonal patterns for the next 30 days are positive.

The Hsi and the Nasdaq indices are solid.

The following chart shows the strongest and weakest seasonal patterns.

Election Seasonal Outlook (Post, Mid, Pre, Election): Indices

Let's take a look at the indices in the current pre-election year. 

The performance of the indices shows a sideways movement until the end of July and then a powerful downward trend.

Seasonal Intraday Outlook: Indices

The 10-day intraday seasonality shows a negative development for almost all indices in the last trading hours. Such behavior indicates that institutional market participants are reducing their positions in the equity market.

Here is the same chart with the U.S. indices. The intraday picture has improved compared to last week. Especially Russel (RUT) has developed well.

U.S. Sectors 

Let's take a look at the U.S. sectors.

Seasonal Outlook: Sectors

Like the indexes, the seasonal patterns for the next 30 days for U.S. sectors show seasonal strength.

The following chart shows the strongest and weakest seasonal patterns.

Seasonal Intraday Outlook: Sectors 

The 10-day seasonal patterns for the U.S. sectors are positive. However, as with the U.S. indices, there is selling in the final trading hours.

Currencies

Let's take a look at the currencies.

Seasonal Outlook: Currencies

The 30-day seasonality for F.X. futures shows a negative trend due to the continued strength of the U.S. dollar during this period. The Pound and Australian Dollar offer the strongest seasonal downtrends.

Seasonal Intraday Outlook: Currencies

The 10-day seasonal trend for currency forwards shows a mixed picture. The CHF and the JPY have the most robust seasonal movement, and the CAD has the weakest. 

All currencies have gained against the USD.

Crypto

Let's take a look at the crypto.

Seasonal Outlook: Crypto

The seasonal pattern for the next 30 days for the major cryptocurrencies shows a downtrend for the next seven days and then an uptrend. Polkadot, in particular, offers a robust seasonal pattern from July 20.

Seasonal Intraday Outlook: Crypto

The 10-day seasonal trend for cryptocurrencies shows a positive picture. 

The positive movement at the beginning of the day continued until noon. After that, a price drop led to a sideways trend from around 16:00.

Commodities

Let's take a look at the commodities.

Seasonal Outlook: Commodities

The seasonal pattern for the next 30 days shows a mixed picture of commodities.

Silver and coffee show a positive seasonal pattern.

The following chart shows the strongest and weakest seasonal patterns.

An interesting seasonal picture can also be seen in the agricultural future. Soybeans and corn stand out in a negative seasonal way.

Seasonal Intraday Outlook: Commodities

The 10-day seasonal intraday pattern shows a mixed picture.

Palladium shows a very positive pattern, while natural gas shows a negative trend in the second half of the day.

Interesting seasonal pattern

What are the opportunities based on seasonal solid patterns?

It may be boring, but this week's most interesting seasonal picture in agricultural futures is also seen. A negative seasonal way characterizes soybeans and corn.

Profit from recurring patterns.

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