Weekly Seasonality Outlook: 24 July 2023

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We regularly provide valuable information and expertise to help you find and evaluate successful investments and trades. 

We send out different issues per week:

1. Seasonality Outlook

2. Seasonal Patterns of the Week

In this issue, you will find relevant content to help you increase your trading success and take advantage of opportunities in the stock markets.

Seasonal Market Outlook

The market overview shows you current trends, developments, and prospects of seasonal patterns in various asset classes.

Summary

Major Indices

Let's take a look at the major indices.

Seasonal Outlook: Indices

The seasonal patterns of the major indices for the next 30 days are almost all negative.

These seasonal patterns show the famous summer lull. From the beginning of August, there were mostly falling prices in recent years.

The following chart shows the strongest and weakest seasonal patterns.

Election Seasonal Outlook (Post, Mid, Pre, Election): Indices

Let's take a look at the indices in the current pre-election year. 

The development of the indices shows a sharp downward trend!

Due to the current high valuation, there may also be a correction this year, which is considered healthy by many market participants.

Seasonal Intraday Outlook: Indices

The 10-day intraday seasonality shows a mixed picture. The U.S. indices, except the Nasdaq, had a positive development. 

Here is the same chart with the U.S. indices. The intraday picture shows that the Dow Jones (DOW), in particular, performed well.

U.S. Sectors 

Let's take a look at the U.S. sectors.

Seasonal Outlook: Sectors

Unlike the indices, the U.S. sectors show a more stable seasonal pattern. 

Real estate is more favorable than all other sectors, and energy shows a weak seasonal pattern from the beginning of August.

The following chart shows the strongest and weakest seasonal patterns.

Seasonal Intraday Outlook: Sectors 

The seasonal 10-day patterns for the U.S. sectors are mixed. Healthcare developed particularly positively, and the communications sector was fragile.

Currencies

Let's take a look at the currencies.

Seasonal Outlook: Currencies

The 30-day seasonality for F.X. futures is mixed. The strongest seasonal downtrend is the Australian dollar, which already turned positive last week.

The following chart shows the strongest and weakest seasonal patterns.

Seasonal Intraday Outlook: Currencies

The 10-day seasonal trend for currency forwards shows a positive picture. The JPY shows the most robust seasonal movement. 

All currencies have gained against the USD.

Crypto

Let's take a look at the crypto.

Seasonal Outlook: Crypto

The seasonal pattern for the next 30 days for the major cryptocurrencies shows a mixed picture. Polkadot, in particular, offers a robust seasonal pattern from July 25.

The following chart shows the strongest and weakest seasonal patterns.

Seasonal Intraday Outlook: Crypto

The seasonal 10-day trend for cryptocurrencies shows a mixed picture. 

Only Polkadot and Dogecoin had a positive development.

Commodities

Let's take a look at the commodities.

Seasonal Outlook: Commodities

The seasonal pattern for the next 30 days shows a mixed picture for commodities.

Only gold and oil offer more pronounced seasonal patterns.

Gold positive and Oil negative.

The following chart shows the strongest and weakest seasonal patterns.

Seasonal Intraday Outlook: Commodities

The seasonal 10-day intraday pattern shows a mixed picture.

Gas shows a very positive pattern, while Oil shows a negative trend.

Interesting seasonal pattern

What are the opportunities based on seasonal solid patterns?

The seasonalities of energy commodities show an interesting picture. All of them have a negative pattern. Especially from the beginning of August, these commodities were rather under pressure in the past.

Profit from recurring patterns.

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